Will be a little bit longer with this analysis, because I want to explain everything in details.
Seven of the 10 teams in the First Montenegrin Football League will fight for something in the final round, which is scheduled for today. The most interesting matches will be Mornar – Buducnost and Arsenal Tivat – Sutjeska who will decide which team will be the champion.
Four days ago, Buducnost didn’t done their homework against Jezero, and missed a HUGE chance to win the title. Everything was prepared for big celebration with a choreography at the stadium under Gorica, but they were shockingly defeat (1:3) against a team that at that moment had only a theoretical chance to avoid the barrage for survival. The debacle of Budućnost revived the hopes of Sutjeska, who is hoping for another setback for the current leader and the defense of the championship throne. Now the situations is really uncertain, because Buducnost and Sutjeska have 67 points, but Buducnost is better in their mutual matches.
Today, Sutjeska is going to Tivat against Arsenal to win the three points, and wait for the result from Mornar – Buducnost match. They will be heavily depleted especially in the offense, because key players Conraad (35/22 top scorer in the league), Krstovic (33/3), Eraković (32/5), and Živković (11/1) are out of the squad.
Arsenal Tivat would secure third place with a victory over the team from Nikšić and would not depend on the results of Jezero – Dečić, as they have a better mutual score. The third place would qualify them for the Conference League, but the problems is that the club from Tivat didn’t get a European license and make an appeal to the federation commission. An interesting fact is that on 29th of May, both teams will play in the Cup final, and if Sutjeska won the championship today, then the 4th place (where Arsenal Tivat is) will automatically give a ticket to the Conference League (because Sutjeska is also qualified to the Cup final).
All in all, the odds on Sutjeska win dropped a lot, and their is no value to take an away win, but I also think that will not win by 2-3 goals difference because key players are unavailable and thats why I will take a +1.5 Asian handicap which has a great value.
Also, if Buducnost done their job in first half against Mornar, or have a big lead, Sutjeska will be relaxed, which is a chance for Arsenal to take the three points on BIG odds.